Here are 10 countries that are beating the energy-life expectancy trend and 10 countries that are falling behind.

Blair Fix

A few weeks ago I took a dive into the [empirics of life
expectancy](https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2020/07/17/living-the-good-life-without-killing-the-planet/){target="_blank"
rel="noopener"}. How can we live longer, I asked, without consuming more
energy?

In the past, we've used fossil fuels as a crutch. To increase life
expectancy, we've consumed loads more energy. Figure 1 shows the trend
across all countries.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large">
<img
src="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect.png?resize=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1"
class="wp-image-1893" loading="lazy" decoding="async"
data-attachment-id="1893"
data-permalink="https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2020/07/17/living-the-good-life-without-killing-the-planet/energy_life_expect/"
data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect.png?fit=3600%2C3600&amp;ssl=1"
data-orig-size="3600,3600" data-comments-opened="1"
data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}"
data-image-title="energy_life_expect" data-image-description=""
data-image-caption="&lt;p&gt;energy life trend&lt;/p&gt;
"
data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect.png?fit=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1"
data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect.png?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1"
data-recalc-dims="1" width="723" height="723" />
<figcaption>Figure 1: Life expectancy vs. energy use per
capita. I’ve plotted here international data relating life
expectancy at birth to energy use per capita. Lines represent the path
through time of various countries from 1960–2015. The black line shows
the average trend. [<a href="#sources-and-methods" target="_blank"
rel="noopener">Sources and methods</a>] 
</figcaption>
</figure>

Although using more energy does increase life expectancy, it's not a
sustainable option for the future. Increasing energy use by an order of
magnitude (from 10 GJ to 100 GJ per person) only gives about 20 extra
years of life. That's not efficient. And it's certainly not sustainable.

So the question is, how can we increase life expectancy *without* using
more energy? To answer this question, it's helpful to define something
called the 'energy-life-expectancy residual'. This is the difference
between a country's life expectancy and the international trend.

Figure 2 shows some examples. Here the black line is the international
trend between life expectancy and energy use per capita. I've
highlighted 4 countries that depart sharply from this trend. The average
Nigerian, for instance, lives 12 *fewer* years than expected from the
energy-life-expectancy trend. The average Costa Rican, in contrast,
lives about 10 years *longer* than expected from the trend. Similar
discrepancies occur at higher energies. The average Russian lives 4
years *less* than expected from the international trend. The average
Netherlander lives 7 years *longer* than expected.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large">
<img
src="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect_resid.png?resize=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1"
class="wp-image-1894" loading="lazy" decoding="async"
data-attachment-id="1894"
data-permalink="https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2020/07/17/living-the-good-life-without-killing-the-planet/energy_life_expect_resid/"
data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect_resid.png?fit=3600%2C3600&amp;ssl=1"
data-orig-size="3600,3600" data-comments-opened="1"
data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}"
data-image-title="energy_life_expect_resid" data-image-description=""
data-image-caption="&lt;p&gt;diff life countries&lt;/p&gt;
"
data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect_resid.png?fit=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1"
data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect_resid.png?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1"
data-recalc-dims="1" width="723" height="723" />
<figcaption>Figure 2: Same energy use, different life
expectancy. Grey dots show the energy-life-expectancy data for
all countries. On top of this data, I’ve highlighted two pairs of
countries that have similar energy use, but different life expectancies.
The ‘life-expectancy residual’ is the deviation from the international
trend. [<a href="#sources-and-methods" target="_blank"
rel="noopener">Sources and methods</a>]. 
</figcaption>
</figure>

### Winners in the game of life

In [Living the Good Life ... Without Killing the
Planet](https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2020/07/17/living-the-good-life-without-killing-the-planet/){target="_blank"
rel="noopener"}, I took a stab at seeing what causes these
energy-life-expectancy residuals. The results sparked much discussion. A
common request from readers was to see which countries were doing 'best'
and which were doing 'worse'.

Here's what the data says.

Figure 3 shows the countries that are winning the game of life. These
are the 10 countries that have most improved their
energy-life-expectancy residuals.

Let's unpack what this means. First of all, it's *not* about the overall
increase in life expectancy. Rather, I'm measuring the change in life
expectancy *relative* to the international trend. In other words, the
countries in Figure 3 have beat the average.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large">
<img
src="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/life_top.png?w=723&amp;ssl=1"
class="wp-image-1894" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="1894"
data-permalink="https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2020/07/17/living-the-good-life-without-killing-the-planet/energy_life_expect_resid/"
data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect_resid.png?fit=3600%2C3600&amp;ssl=1"
data-orig-size="3600,3600" data-comments-opened="1"
data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}"
data-image-title="energy_life_expect_resid" data-image-description=""
data-image-caption="&lt;p&gt;diff life countries&lt;/p&gt;
"
data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect_resid.png?fit=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1"
data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect_resid.png?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1"
data-recalc-dims="1" />
<figcaption>Figure 3: Ten countries that beat the
energy-life-expectancy trend. Here are the 10 countries with
the greatest increase in the energy-life-expectancy residual. I’ve
ranked panels (from top to bottom) in descending order. In each panel,
the grey line shows the international trend between energy use and life
expectancy. [<a href="#sources-and-methods" target="_blank"
rel="noopener">Sources and methods</a>] 
</figcaption>
</figure>

Most of these countries have drastically increased life expectancy
without using more energy. Some countries (like Tajikistan and North
Korea) have even managed to increase life expectancy while *decreasing*
energy use. Seeing North Korea on this list is a bit surprising, given
its bizarre brand of kleptocratic communism. Living longer, it seems,
doesn't require freedom or free markets.

I'm not an expert on international development, so I'd like to hear your
thoughts about what's going on here. Why are these countries winning the
game of life?

### Losers in the game of life

Now let's turn the table and look at the countries that are losing the
game of life. Figure 4 shows the 10 countries whose life expectancy has
*decreased* the most relative to the international trend.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large">
<img
src="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/life_bottom.png?w=723&amp;ssl=1"
class="wp-image-1894" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="1894"
data-permalink="https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2020/07/17/living-the-good-life-without-killing-the-planet/energy_life_expect_resid/"
data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect_resid.png?fit=3600%2C3600&amp;ssl=1"
data-orig-size="3600,3600" data-comments-opened="1"
data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}"
data-image-title="energy_life_expect_resid" data-image-description=""
data-image-caption="&lt;p&gt;diff life countries&lt;/p&gt;
"
data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect_resid.png?fit=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1"
data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/energy_life_expect_resid.png?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1"
data-recalc-dims="1" />
<figcaption>Figure 4: Ten countries that fell short of the
energy-life-expectancy trend. Here are the 10 countries with
the greatest decrease in the energy-life-expectancy residual. I’ve
ranked panels (from top to bottom) in ascending order. In each panel,
the grey line shows the international trend between energy use and life
expectancy. [<a href="#sources-and-methods" target="_blank"
rel="noopener">Sources and methods</a>] 
</figcaption>
</figure>

Notice that other than Eswatini and Namibia, all of these countries have
increased their life expectancy in absolute terms. But they have done so
slower than the international trend. In other words, greater energy use
has paid off less than expected.

Interestingly, half of these countries are island nations (St. Vincent,
Seychelles, Tonga, St. Lucia, Grenada). These nations had higher life
expectancies to begin with. When they increased their energy use, it
seems that life expectancy regressed towards the mean.

And what's going on in Eswatini? (It's also known as Swaziland.) From
1990 to 2007, Swazi life expectancy collapsed --- decreasing from over
60 years to less than 45 years. I'm no expert, but I suspect we're
seeing the results of the HIV epidemic. According to
[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eswatini){target="_blank"
rel="noopener"}, a quarter of all Swazi adults are HIV positive --- the
highest rate anywhere.

### Zero sum, by definition

I'll close by noting that the game of life, as I've defined it here, is
*zero sum*. I'm measuring life expectancy relative to the international
trend, which means that there are always going to be winners and losers.
Because of this fact, I don't think that beating the international trend
should necessarily be a policy goal. It would be perverse for all
countries to try to 'beat the average', since by definition, that's
impossible. Still, it's interesting to see which countries do better (in
relative terms) than others. The harder task is to figure out why this
is happening.

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### Sources and methods

Energy use data is from the World Bank series
[EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE){target="_blank"
rel="noopener"}. I've added an estimate for the energy consumed though
food (2000 kcal per person per day). Life expectancy (at birth) is from
the World Bank series
[SP.DYN.LE00.IN](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN){target="_blank"
rel="noopener"}.

I calculate the energy-life-expectancy trend (in Figures 1 and 2) using
a [locally-weighted polynomial
regression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_regression){target="_blank"
rel="noopener"}. Residuals are then measured as deviations from this
regression.

I've defined 'winners' and 'losers' as follows. In each country, I
measure the energy-life-expectancy residual in the first available year
and last available year. 'Winners' have the greatest difference between
the two observations. 'Losers' have the smallest (i.e. most negative)
difference between the two observations.

A few weeks ago I took a dive into the empirics of life expectancy. How can we live longer, I asked, without consuming more energy? In the past, we’ve used fossil fuels as a crutch. To increase life expectancy, we’ve consumed loads more energy. Figure 1 shows the trend across all countries. Although using more energy does increase life expectancy, it’s not a sustainable option for the future.

Winning the Game of Life

How can we improve human welfare without consuming more energy?

How can we live the ‘good life’ without killing the planet? My last post on energy and empire got me thinking about this question. We know that human welfare improves as we use more resources. But it’s suicidal for all of humanity to pursue this path.

Messaggi di Rogue Scholar

Winning the Game of Life

Living the Good Life … Without Killing the Planet