Do unskilled people actually underestimate their incompetence?

Blair Fix

Have you heard of the ‘Dunning-Kruger effect’? It’s the (apparent) tendency for unskilled people to overestimate their competence. Discovered in 1999 by psychologists Justin Kruger and David Dunning, the effect has since become famous. And you can see why. It’s the kind of idea that is too juicy to
<em>
 not
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be true. Everyone ‘knows’ that idiots tend to be unaware of their own idiocy.

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The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation